2024 Northern Water ASO Usage Case Study

Key Findings

3 West slope flights conducted for 2024

Three snow surveys were conducted for 2024, each covering the three major watersheds that contribute to the C-BT and Windy Gap Projects.

ASO data integrated into Northern Water’s internal forecasts

SWE measured by each ASO snow survey was used to improve streamflow forecasts developed using the agency’s internal forecast model.

ASO-informed forecasts used in critical decision making

Information gathered from the ASO-informed forecasts was used to inform the 2024 April quota declaration and reduce flood risks at Lake Granby during a particularly wet runoff season.

Project Background


Northern Water manages the Colorado Big-Thompson project, the state’s largest transbasin diversion project which collects, stores, and delivers more than 200,00 acre-feet of supplemental water to the eastern slope of Colorado each year. Constructed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation between 1938 and 1957, the project includes a network of dams, reservoirs, tunnels, and canals, the centerpiece of which is the 13.1-mile Alva B. Adams Tunnel which carries water beneath the Continental Divide. The C-BT project provides water for irrigation, municipal, industrial, and hydroelectric power uses, benefiting over 30 cities and towns and supporting hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland. It is a critical resource for managing Colorado's water supply amid varying climate conditions.

On November 1 each year the Northern Water Board of Directors sets an initial quota for the project which represents the yield of each C-BT Project unit for that year. Quotas are expressed as a percentage of 310,000 acre-feet, the amount of water the C-BT Project was designed to deliver on an annual basis. A 100 percent quota makes 310,000 acre-feet of water available for delivery, meaning each C-BT allottee receives 1 acre-foot of water for each unit owned. Under a 70 percent quota each allottee receives 7/10 of an acre-foot per unit, and so on. The Northern Water Board has the ability to supplement the initial quota the following April based on a number of factors, most notably water availability within the project’s collection system and water demands throughout the project’s service area.

Since the project is intended to provide supplemental water to project allottees, lower water availability and higher demands on the eastern slope typically contribute to a higher project quota. Accurate seasonal streamflow forecasts for the projects contributing watersheds, namely the Granby and Willow Creek basins, are also critical to the Board’s decision making process.


ASO Application


Three ASO flights were conducted between March 21 and May 30, 2024, strategically spanning critical points throughout the spring runoff season. ASO data was analyzed and directly incorporated into the WRF-Hydro and Northern Water FEWS forecasting models for the Granby inflow and Willow Creek basins. Northern Water’s Fraser basin FEWS model was calibrated later in water year 2024, so these model results were not used for the Fraser basin that year. Northern Water produces forecasts by compiling outputs from WRF-Hydro and FEWS forecasts along with other in-house statistical, conceptual, and spreadsheet models, external forecast models, and snow data. The official forecast is then developed through a subjective process of reviewing all forecasts and relevant data.

Results


The Granby and Willow Creek inflow forecasts produced by WRF-Hydro gave confidence in the preliminary forecasts used for Northern Water’s Spring Symposium and informed the official April 1 forecasts which were used by the Board to inform their decision on the April C-BT quota.

The April flights were meant to capture near peak SWE but because of the significant late-season snow accumulation in 2024, the peak SWE did not occur until approximately May 10. Data from the April flights was assimilated into streamflow forecasting models, as well as the iSnobal model, and the modeled peak SWE was used to inform subsequent forecasts.

In early June, preemptive releases were being made from Lake Granby to avoid flooding structures downstream. The late May ASO data and the forecasts based on that data helped Northern Water determine that there was more snow at the higher elevations than expected and that inflows to the reservoir would be higher than indicated by the June 1 forecasts. This ultimately helped Northern Water and Reclamation adjust their releases to account for this increase in forecasted runoff.